A Few 2007 Grammy Predictions

My live-blogging of the 49th Annual Grammy Awards is only a few hours away! I'm so excited, as this is the first time I've done this. It should be a great nite.

I wanted to put a few predictions on the record. Check back later to see how embarrassingly ignorant I was.

First, the "Big Four"...

* RECORD OF THE YEAR

"Be Without You", Mary J. Blige
"You're Beautiful", James Blunt
"Not Ready To Make Nice", Dixie Chicks
"Crazy", Gnarls Barkley
"Put Your Records On", Corinne Bailey Rae

ROTY is an artist-and-producer award and celebrates the "finished product" of the song. In this category, the academy <3's big hit records that do not embarrass them. "Crazy" is the most kryptonite-solid lock in this category since "Hey Ya!" won in 2004. If "Crazy" is not the "Record Of The Year", then I know nothing about the Grammy's and should just give this up for good.

* ALBUM OF THE YEAR

"Taking The Long Way", Dixie Chicks
"St. Elsewhere", Gnarls Barkley
"Continuum", John Mayer
"Stadium Arcadium", Red Hot Chili Peppers
"FutureSex/LoveSounds", Justin Timberlake

I'm listening to "Taking The Long Way" as I blog this right now, and it's a great album. It's an open secret that the Dixie Chicks will be splitting up after they take home a few grammaphones tonite, so I'm not betting against them in any category tonight, except for this one, and ROTY as already discussed. Of the nominated albums, I think JT's "FutureSex/Lovesounds" is the "album of the year" and is a blueprint for pop music for at least the next two years. Timbaland did some of his best work ever this year, on this album and on Nelly Furtado's album, among others. But, alas, I suspect the Grammy voters will dissapoint me yet again -- remember when Eminem lost to Steely fucking Dan in 2001 and again to Norah fucking Jones in 2003??? -- and go with the safe choice. I predict the Chili Peppers will take home this award for "Stadium Arcadium", a nice single album that was inexplicably stretched out to 11 double-length size.

* SONG OF THE YEAR

"Be Without You", Johnta Austin, Mary J. Blige, Bryan-Michael Cox & Jason Perry, songwriters (Mary J. Blige)
"Jesus, Take The Wheel", Brett James, Hillary Lindsey & Gordie Sampson, songwriters (Carrie Underwood)
"Not Ready To Make Nice", Martie Maguire, Natalie Maines, Emily Robison & Dan Wilson, songwriters (Dixie Chicks)
"Put Your Records On", John Beck, Steve Chrisanthou & Corinne Bailey Rae, songwriters (Corinne Bailey Rae)
"You're Beautiful", James Blunt, Amanda Ghost & Sacha Skarbek, songwriters (James Blunt)

4 of the 5 ROTY nominees get SOTY nods, with ROTY lock "Crazy" being replaced with AI5-winner Carrie Underwood's "Jesus, Take The Wheel". SOTY, unlike ROTY, is a songwriter's award and is all about the song. All of these songs are worthy of this honor -- as is usually the case -- but I predict this will be one of the categories where the academy will honor the Dixie Chicks' long and illustrious career with an award. Plus, "Not Ready To Make Nice" is about free speech and is derivatively anti-war, so academy members can feel like they're making a statement against the war by awarding the honor to the Chicks. If you're looking for an upset here, keep an eye on "Jesus, Take The Wheel" -- the biggest Country song of the year -- or "Be Without You" -- a great "comeback" song by a highly-beloved artist.

* BEST NEW ARTIST

James Blunt
Chris Brown
Imogen Heap
Corinne Bailey Rae
Carrie Underwood

Worthy nominees all. But I think this category is also a lock. Carrie Underwood was the story of the year in Country music and stands head-and-shoulders above these other nominees. But I'm wondering if the academy will exhibit any of its famous anti-Country bias, or any anti-American-Idol bias. If so, a possible upset winner would be James Blunt. Corrine Bailey Rae is a darkhorse favorite for those academy members who filled out their ballots at Starbucks.

And a few quick hits from the Pop categories:

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance...should win: Christina Aguilera ["Ain't No Other Man"]...upset possibility: Grammy-beloved Sheryl Crow ["You Can Close Your Eyes"].

Best Male Pop Vocal Performance...lots of mediocre nominees...I predict Grammy-beloved John Legend ["Save Room"] as the winner.

Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal...more mediocre nominees...another category in which the Grammy voters will probably play it safe...I predict Keane ["Is It Any Wonder?"] as the winner, unless Zach Braff and Mischa Barton are the only voters this year, in which case Death Cab has an outside shot at an upset.

Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals...finally, a pop category with several worthy nominees..."Promiscuous" is my favorite song from 2006..."Hips Don't Lie" was also a huge, excellent song...which means the academy will play it safe and go for Mary J. Blige-and-U2's "One" [they performed it on last year's Grammy's, fercrissakes!!!]...a non-dark darkhorse in this category is "For Once In My Life", because, yaknow, it's Tony Bennett & Stevie Wonder.

Best Pop Vocal Album...the academy will likely give this award to JT "FutureSex/Lovesounds"] as consolation for getting robbed of the AOTY award.

See you later. Enjoy!