Grammy 2009: Some Predictions

It's Grammy nite, 2009, and I'm back again with a few predictions. Even though some of the "early" awards have already been announced, I swear I've been ignoring the news reports. So if this post "predicts" awards that have already been announced, I swear I'm not cheating.

Let's make a few wild-ass-guess predictions, after the jump...

For Grammy 2008, I made 22 predictions, and based on my scoring method, I racked up only 12.5 points. Ugh. Let's do better this year, even though this year is much more challenging.

(I'll score myself this way: 1 point for a correct prediction; 0.5 points for a "should win" or "dark horse" prediction that hits)

(For the full list of nominees see this)

(Also, if you're looking for a cool liveblog of tonite's events, try the only other music blog that matters, Idolator)

* * * * *

1) Record Of The Year
(Award to the Artist and to the Producer(s), Recording Engineer(s) and/or Mixer(s), if other than the artist.)

* Chasing Pavements, Adele

* Viva La Vida, Coldplay

* Bleeding Love, Leona Lewis (Simon Cowell, Clive Davis & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, producers; Craig Durrance, Phil Tan & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, engineers/mixers)

* Paper Planes, M.I.A

* Please Read The Letter, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss

As far as I can tell, this is American Idol judge Simon Cowell's first year of Grammy nomination. And, in case you're wondering, Clive Davis has won only three Grammys, which is actually a surprise to me.

This is a very tough category. Plant/Krauss will take home lots of hardware tonite, but probably not in this category. I think better bets are Coldplay (who will also take home lots of hardware) or Leona Lewis.

Prediction: "Bleeding Love"
Dark Horse: "Viva La Vida"

2) Album Of The Year
(Award to the Artist(s) and to the Album Producer(s), Recording Engineer(s)/Mixer(s) & Mastering Engineer(s), if other than the artist.)

* Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends, Coldplay

* Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne

* Year Of The Gentleman, Ne-Yo

* Raising Sand, Robert Plant & Alison Krauss

* In Rainbows, Radiohead

All of these albums are worthy of this award. I had Lil Wayne as my "number one album of 2008", and Ne-Yo was my "number four". Plant/Krauss made my 2007 Top 10, but it's eligible here because it was released three weeks into the eligibility year.

Regardless of each of these albums' worthiness, Plant/Krauss are a solid-platinum lock here.

Prediction: "Raising Sand"
Dark Horse: "Viva La Vida"

3) Song Of The Year
(A Songwriter(s) Award. A song is eligible if it was first released or if it first achieved prominence during the Eligibility Year. (Artist names appear in parentheses.) Singles or Tracks only.)

* American Boy
William Adams, Keith Harris, Josh Lopez, Caleb Speir, John Stephens, Estelle Swaray & Kanye West, songwriters (Estelle Featuring Kanye West)
Track from: Shine
[Atlantic/Homeschool; Publishers: Will.I.Am Music/Cherry River Music/Chrysalis Publishing/John Legend Publishing/Cherry River Music/Please Gimme My Publishing/EMI Blackwood Music/Larry Leron Music/Speir Music/Broke, Spoke and Gone Publishing]

* Chasing Pavements
Adele Adkins & Eg White, songwriters (Adele)
Track from: 19
[XL Recordings/Columbia; Publishers: Universal-Songs of Polygram Int.]

* I'm Yours
Jason Mraz, songwriter (Jason Mraz)
Track from: We Sing. We Dance. We Steal Things.
[Atlantic; Publisher: Goo Eyed Music]

* Love Song
Sara Bareilles, songwriter (Sara Bareilles)
Track from: Little Voice
[Epic; Publisher: Tiny Bear Music]

* Viva La Vida
Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion & Chris Martin, songwriters (Coldplay)
Track from: Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends
[Capitol Records; Publishers: Universal Music-MGB Songs]

I have no clue. None of these "songs" are far and away better than the others.

Prediction: "Chasing Pavements"
Dark Horse: "Viva La Vida"

4) Best New Artist
(For a new artist who releases, during the Eligibility Year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist.)

* Adele

* Duffy

* Jonas Brothers

* Lady Antebellum

* Jazmine Sullivan

Another very tough category. All are worthy, but none are head-and-shoulders above the others.

Adele and Duffy -- aren't they the same person? The Jonas Brothers -- my niece likes them. Lady Antebellum -- aren't they a country group?; must be why I've never heard their music. Jazmine Sullivan -- sorry, her R&B does nothing for me.

Prediction: Adele
Dark Horse: The Jonas Brothers

LOW-HANGING FRUIT

This category includes predictions I am guaranteed* to get right, mostly because the nominees made it to the Big Four.

(*guarantee not valid in any state -- Eds.)

5) Best Rock Album

Prediction: "Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends"

You don't need to know who the other nominees are. Only Coldplay made it to the AOTY category.

6) Best Alternative Music Album

Prediction: "In Rainbows"

See above, and this is the last time I'll write this.

7) Best Contemporary R&B Album

Prediction: "Year Of The Gentleman"

8) Best Rap Album

Prediction: "Tha Carter III"

9) Best Contemporary Folk/Americana Album

Prediction: "Raising Sand"

10) Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals

"Viva La Vida"

NOT QUITE LOW-HANGING FRUIT

This category includes predictions that are contested, but make it to the Big Four.

11) Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

Prediction: "Bleeding Love"
Dark Horse: "Chasing Pavements"

12) Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals

Prediction: "Viva La Vida"

13) Best Rap/Sung Collaboration

Prediction: "American Boy"

RANDOM PICKS

14) Best Short Form Music Video

Prediction: "Pork And Beans"

15) Producer Of The Year, Non-Classical

Prediction: will.i.am
Dark Horse: Rick Rubin

16) Best Remixed Recording, Non-Classical

Prediction: "Closer"
Dark Horse: "4 Minutes"

17) Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

Prediction: "Bleeding Love"
Dark Horse: "Chasing Pavements"

18) Best Male Pop Vocal Performance

Prediction: "Closer"
Dark Horse: "I'm Yours"

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Okay, it's 7PM EST, and some of the early winners have already been announced. I can't really go any further without looking like I'm cheating, so I'll stop with these predictions. I'll be back later to score myself.

-- DHMBIB